Having long studied the role of gender in American politics, I am very eager to see what the next six months will bring. Among Democrats, will identity politics strengthen Hillary Clinton’s appeal to women voters? Or will younger women in particular, offended by the assertion that their sex in some way should assure their support for a Clinton presidency, double down for Bernie Sanders? Even more interesting to me than the generation gap among Democrats is how Donald Trump will attempt to bridge the enormous gender gap among Republicans. Will his efforts to appeal to women weaken his base? Many white men support Trump because they are unhappy with, among other things, what they see as the growing power and influence of women and racial and ethnic minorities. But if Trump can’t or won’t convince women that he truly respects them as equals, will Republican women stay in the party, go rogue, or simply stay home on election day? I’ll be watching the role of gender in both parties’ campaigns.
Having studied extensively the recovery of the Republican party following its disastrously divisive three-way race for the presidential nomination in 1912, I don’t believe that Donald Trump’s nomination will mean the end of the GOP. The next six months, however, could prove me wrong. Can Donald Trump bring himself to make nice with leading Republicans? And if not, will those Republicans hold their noses and support him anyway for the sake of party unity? If they find Trump truly antithetical to traditional Republican values, how will they attempt to salvage the party? Will they simply turn their efforts to promoting GOP candidates further down the ballot, or remain focused on the presidency and mount a third party campaign? With the Republican party at a crossroads, I’ll be watching Republicans who are currently anti-Trump with great interest.