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Cautious Silicon Valley business outlook unchanged, according to latest SCU Business Index
SANTA CLARA, Calif. – Nov.26, 2002 – The outlook for businesses in Silicon Valley has leveled off for another month, after a slide from optimism early in the year, according to the November business index for Silicon Valley released today by Santa Clara University’s Leavey School of Business.
The Santa Clara University Business Index: Silicon Valley Outlook recorded a fifth straight month of little change in the respondents’ slightly optimistic assessment of the local economy in the next six months.
The latest index shows “there are no major signs of recovery ahead,” said SCU economist Mario Belotti, who has tracked the
“The index numbers have stabilized for five months -- the economy is flattening out,” he said.
Belotti said the latest index also shows that, despite some recent positive signs, such as lower interest rates, positive earning expectations and improved consumer confidence,
The Santa Clara University Business Index debuted a month ago, after a year in development. The survey has been tabulating results since February 2002 to affirm its validity and establish trends.
This new monthly business indicator, the only one of its kind for the
The SCU Business Index asks managers and executives in a wide range of businesses in
The last time the survey respondents expressed significant optimism about current and future economic conditions in
The Santa Clara University Business Index survey polls several hundred MBA alumni and several dozen members of its business advisory board,, all in managerial and executive positions in
The survey elicits both a backward-looking as well as a forward-looking indicator, thereby capturing the sentiment of the past six months' trend and its counterpart six months into the future. The reported averages of these indicators offer an aggregate summary of business sentiment in the Valley. The indicators range from 0 to 100, centered on 50. Values below 50 imply negative sentiment, and those above 50 imply positive sentiment. A comparison of the backward swing to the forward one reveals the change in sentiment. The survey is conducted every month and over time is meant to develop an early warning system of upswings and downswings in the
Economics Professor Mario Belotti is available for comment on the SCU Business Index, and the
About The Leavey School of Business
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